A shifting climate
Observed changes in the hydroclimate of south-eastern Australia may indicate a shift in climate similar to that experienced since the 1970s in south-west Western Australia. That shift involved a reduction in rainfall and runoff, and has been linked to climate change and a range of other factors.
Climate modelling suggests an increasing risk of below-average rainfall in the coming decades for south-eastern Australia. Given that observed changes in the climate are at least partly attributable to climate change, it is prudent to plan for conditions which may be drier than the long-term average.
The recent drought - natural variability or climate change?
Rainfall variability is a natural feature of the climate of south-eastern Australia, caused by a range of large-scale climate factors including the El Niño – Southern Oscillation. However, SEACI research has shown that climate change may also be affecting the reduced rainfall and runoff experienced in south-eastern Australia.
Research in Phase 1 of SEACI found a strong relationship between rainfall in south-eastern Australia and the intensity of the sub-tropical ridge – a belt of high pressure across southern Australia. An intensification of the high-pressure system prevents rain-bearing lows from moving through south-eastern Australia. In a climate modelling study, the intensification of the
For further information on our changing climate, see:
MDB Sustainable Yields Reports
Bureau of Meteorology: Climate Change