South eastern Australia, over the past ten years, has experienced drier conditions, which have had major impacts on water resources and the availability of urban and rural water supplies. For example, 2006 had the lowest water allocations to irrigators ever recorded.
Inflows to the River Murray system over the past 10 years have been 42% below average, but roughly comparable to flows recorded in the drought periods around the turn of the century and in the 1940s. In Victoria, streamflows in the east of the State over the past ten years have typically been around 25-50% below average, but in the west of the State they have been more typically around 60-90% below the long term average.
These trends in rainfall and streamflow records appear to be unusual when compared to records over the past 100 years. They look similar to the changes observed in south-western Australia from the mid 1970s. While research to date shows that climate change is expected to result in hotter and drier conditions across much of southern Australia, the changes in the past ten years are earlier and larger than would have been expected.
In the case of south western Australia, research to date has indicated that both climate change and natural variability are likely to be contributing to the changes in climate, along with other key climate drivers such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The likely causes of the current dry period in south eastern Australia will be investigated in detail as part of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative.
MORE INFORMATION:
Climate variability and climate change in south eastern Australia fact sheet | Download PDF 82 KB
Australian rainfall and surface temperature data | www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cli_var/area_timeseries.pl
Australian Climate Change and Variability | www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg
Bureau of Meteorology: Climate change | www.bom.gov.au/climate/change
CSIRO: Climate change | www.csiro.au/science/ClimateChange.html
Climate change in Australia | www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au