Future hydroclimate projections

Throughout Phase 1 of SEACI, hydrological modelling was carried out to estimate historical and future runoff across south-eastern Australia. The research:

calibrated and regionalised a rainfall-runoff model (SIMHYD) to simulate daily runoff for ~50,000 0.05^o grid cells (about 5km x 5km) from 1895–2006 across south-eastern Australia. For this, daily rainfall and potential evaporation data was calibrated against daily streamflow from 240 catchments across the study region.
developed future daily climate series (scenarios) to drive the rainfall-runoff model, informed by 15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) global climate models (GCMs). These models assumed a 0.9 ^oC increase in global average surface air temperature by 2030, and
modelled future daily runoff using the regionalised rainfall-runoff model, driven with the future daily climate series.

The method

The method is described in detail and the results are presented in Future Runoff Projections. The various components in the modelling are further assessed in Estimating climate change impact on runoff across south-east Australia [external link]. The method and data used, and the results, are very similar to, but not exactly the same as, the CSIRO Sustainable Yields project [external link].

The variables are summarised in the below files as values for all the 0.05^o grid cells across the Murray–Darling Basin and Victoria for:

mean annual rainfall (averaged over 1895–2006)
mean annual potential evaporation (averaged over 1895–2006)
mean annual runoff (averaged over 1895–2006)
percentage change in mean annual rainfall (for 0.9 ^oC increase in global average surface air temperature) indicated by the 15 GCMs (and the second driest, median and second wettest results)
percentage change in mean annual potential evaporation (for 0.9 ^oC increase in global average surface air temperature) indicated by the 15 GCMs (and the second driest, median and second wettest results)
percentage change in mean annual runoff (for 0.9 ^oC increase in global average surface air temperature) indicated by the 15 GCMs (and the second driest, median and second wettest results).

Data

Data is available for download after completion of a registration form. The values are given in three .csv files for:

rainfall
potential evaporation
runoff.

Go to the registration form.

References

Smith and Chiew (2009) Document and assess methods for generating inputs to hydrological models and extend delivery of projections across Victoria. Final project report 2.2.5B| (PDF 144 KB)

Post DA, Chiew F, Vaze J, Teng J and Perraud JM (2009) Future runoff projections (~2030) for southeast Australia. | PDF 304 KB

Chiew FHS, Teng J, Vaze J, Post DA, Perraud J-M, Kirono DGC and Viney NR (2009) Estimating climate change impact on runoff across south-east Australia: method, results and implications of modelling method. Water Resources Research, 45. | Link to abstract [external link].