Theme 1: Current climate
Characterisation and attribution of current climate
To better understand the current climate, it is necessary to understand the major drivers affecting climate over a range of time-scales, the relationships between the drivers, and whether these influences have changed over time. SEACI will assess the current level of knowledge about climate variability over south eastern Australia by assembling and reviewing information that is currently scattered throughout published literature and various databases, and by conducting statistical analysis of site specific meteorological records.
Research questions
Partner agencies are interested in finding out:
- How has climate changed?
- What are the major drivers affecting historical and current climate?
- What are the relationships between the drivers operating at different timescales and have these changed over time?
- What are the causes of the dry conditions affecting parts of the study area over the last decade, and what is the prognosis?
- What is the current climate baseline?
- What criteria should be used to determine whether shifts in the baseline have occurred, or are likely to occur?
Projects
To answer these questions CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology are undertaking five projects that will:
- Document and analyse recent climate trends for the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative study region
- Investigate the effect of the Indian Ocean on climate for South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative study region
- Develop downscaling models to the re-analysis data set with a view to attributing climate change for the south east corner of the Murray-Darling Basin
- Apply models to attribute climate change for the south east corner of the Murray-Darling Basin
- Apply downscaling models to coupled climate model historical runs with a view to attributing climate change for the south east corner of the Murray-Darling Basin.
The re-analysis data set is a data set that has been compiled to represent the most complete description of the physical state of the atmosphere from 1948. State-of-the art models are used to re-analyse this historical data with a view to better understanding the key drivers/interactions.
The south eastern corner of the Murray-Darling Basin is defined as all catchments in the Murrumbidgee and Murray basins upstream of the junction of the Murrumbidgee and Murray Rivers
Expected outcomes
At the conclusion of this research we expect to have:
- New knowledge about the causes of recent climatic conditions, and the extent to which these conditions are different from those covered by the rest of the instrumental record.
- An assessment of the extent to which recent climatic conditions match those that could be expected under the enhanced greenhouse effect.
- A short-term prognosis for climate over the study areas.
MORE INFORMATION:
Theme 1: Characterisation and attribution of current climate fact sheet |
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