Peer reviewed publications
These peer-reviewed publications are associated with research completed by SEACI scientists.
Whan K, Timbal B and Lindsay J. (2014) Linear and nonlinear statistical analysis of the impact of sub-tropical ridge intensity and position on south-east Australian rainfall. International Journal of Climatology. 34(2):326-342 DOI: 10.1002/joc.3689. ISSN: 0899-8418
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim (2013) Southeast Australia autumn rainfall reduction: A climate-change induced poleward shift of ocean-atmosphere circulation. Journal of Climate, 26(1):189–205.
Robertson, David and Wang, QJ (2013) Seasonal forecasts of unregulated inflows into the Murray River, Australia. Water Resources Management, 27(8):2747–2769.
Timbal B and Fawcett R (2013) A Historical Perspective on Southeastern Australian Rainfall since 1865 Using the Instrumental Record. Journal of Climate, 26, 1112–1129.
Nguyen H, Evans A, Lucas C, Smith I and Timbal B (2013) The Hadley Circulation in reanalyses: climatology, variability, and change. Journal of Climate, 26, 3357–3376.
Cai, Wenju, Van Rensch, Peter and Cowan, Tim (2012) An asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO teleconnection pathway and its impact on Australian climate. Journal of Climate, 25(18):6318–6329.
Chiew FHS, Prosser I and Post DA (2012) On climate variability and climate change and impact on water resources, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12–16 December 2011.
Kirono D, Kent D, Chiew FHS, Teng J (2012) Consistent assessment of global climate model simulation for hydrological applications in south eastern Australia, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12–16 December 2011.
Leblanc M, Tweed S, van Dijk A and Timbal B (2012) A review of historic and future hydrological changes in the Murray–Darling Basin, Global and Planetary Change 80–81 (2012) 226–246 doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.012
Lim EP, Hendon HH, Langford S and Alves O (2012) Improvements in POAMA2 for the prediction of major climate drivers and south eastern Australia rainfall. CAWCR Technical Report No. 051.
Lucas C, Nguyen L and Timbal B (2012) An observational analysis of Southern Hemisphere tropical expansion. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D17112.
Petheram C, Potter N, Vaze J, Chiew F and Zhang L (2012) Towards better understanding of changes in rainfall-runoff relationships during the recent drought in south-eastern Australia, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12–16 December 2011.
Post DA and Moran RJ (2012) Provision of usable projections of future water availability for south-eastern Australia: the South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI). Practical Responses to Climate Change National Conference, 1–3 May 2012, Canberra, Australia.
Potter N, Petheram C and Zhang L (2012) Sensitivity of streamflow to rainfall and temperature in south-eastern Australia during the Millennium drought, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12–16 December 2011.
Robertson DE and Wang QJ (2012) A Bayesian approach to predictor selection for seasonal streamflow forecasting, American Meteorological Society, 13, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-10-05009.1.
Teng J, Chiew FHS, Timbal B, Vaze J, Wang Y, Wang B, Evans A, Kent D, Kirono D and Post DA (2012). Assessing historical and future runoff modelled using rainfall from the analogue downscaling method, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12–16 December 2011.
Timbal B and Drosdowsky W (2012) The relationship between the decline of South Eastern Australia rainfall and the strengthening of the sub-tropical ridge, International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.3492.
Charles A, Hendon HH, Wang QJ, Robertson D, and Lim EP (2011) Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray–Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall, CAWCR Technical Report no 040
Fu G and Charles SP (2011) Statistical downscaling of daily rainfall for Southeastern Australia, Hydro-climatology: Variability and change. In: Hydro-climatology: Variability and Change. Proceedings of symposium J-H02 held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011.
Langford S, Hendon HH, and Lim EP (2011) Assessment of POAMA's predictions of some climate indices for use as predictors of Australian rainfall, CAWCR Technical Report No.031, The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research. | External link to PDF [14.94 MB]
Lim EP, Hendon HH, Anderson DTL, Charles A and Alves O (2011) Dynamical, statistical-dynamical and multi-model ensemble forecasts of Australian spring season rainfall. Monthly Weather Review 139, 958-975. | External link to abstract
Post DA, Teng J, Chiew FHS, Wang B, Vaze J and Marvanek S (2011) Non-linearity of the runoff response across south-eastern Australia to increases in global average temperature. In: Hydro-climatology: Variability and Change. Proceedings of symposium J-H02 held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011.
Roff G, Thompson DWJ, and Hendon H (2011) Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended-range forecast skill?, Geophysical Research Letters 38. | External link to abstract
Teng J, Chiew FHS, Vaze J and Post DA (2011) Calibration of hydrological models for medium term streamflow prediction in a changing climate. In: Hydro-climatology: Variability and Change. Proceedings of symposium J-H02 held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011.
Wang QJ and Robertson DE (2011) Multisite probabilistic forecasting of seasonal flows for streams with zero value occurrences. Water Resources Research 47. | External link to abstract
Yin Y, Alves O and Oke P (2011) An ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction. Monthly Weather Review, 139, 786-808. | External link to abstract
Chiew FHS, Kirono DGC, Kent DM, Frost AJ, Charles SP, Timbal B, Nguyen KC, and Fu G (2010) Comparison of runoff modelled using rainfall from different downscaling methods for historical and future climates. Journal of Hydrology 387:1-2, 10-23. | External link to abstract
Chiew FHS, Young WJ, Cai W and Teng J (2010) Current drought and future hydroclimate projections in southeast Australia and implications for water resources management, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 24(4), 601-612. | External link to abstract
Donohue RJ, McVicar TR and Roderick ML (2010) Assessing the ability of potential evaporation formulations to capture the dynamics in evaporative demand within a changing climate. Journal of Hydrology 386, 186-197. | External link to abstract
Kirono DGC and Kent DM (2010) Assessment of rainfall and potential evaporation from global climate models and its implications for Australian regional drought projection. International Journal of Climatology, June 2010. | External link to abstract
Kirono DGC, Chiew FHS and Kent DM (2010) Identification of best predictors for forecasting seasonal rainfall and runoff in Australia. Hydrological Processes 24(10), 1237-1247. | External link to abstract
Lim EP, Hendon HH, Alves O, Yin Y, Wang G, Hudson D, Zhao M and Shi L (2010) Dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical Indo-Pacific SST and Australian rainfall with improved ocean initial conditions. CAWCR Technical Report No.032, The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research. | External link to PDF [2.34 MB]
Potter NJ, Chiew FHS, and Frost AJ (2010) An assessment of the severity of recent reductions in rainfall and runoff in the Murray-Darling Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 381(1-2), 52-64| External link to abstract
Smith I and Timbal B (2010) Links between tropical indices and southern Australia rainfall. International Journal of Climatology, October 2010. 8pp. | External link to abstract
Timbal B (2010) A discussion on aspects of the seasonality of the rainfall decline in south-eastern Australia. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Research Letters. | External link to abstract
Timbal, B (2010) The climate of the eastern seaboard of Australia: a challenging entity now and for future projections. Proceedings of the 2010 IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Sciences 11. | External link to abstract
Timbal B, Arblaster J, Braganza K, Fernandez E, Hendon H, Murphy B, Raupach M, Rakich C, Smith I, Whan K and Wheeler M (2010) Understanding the anthropogenic nature of the observed rainfall decline across south-eastern Australia. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Technical Report 026. | External link to PDF [5.58 MB]
Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, Briggs PR, England MH, McIntosh PC, Meyers GA, Pook MJ, Raupach MR, and Risbey JS. (2010). Indian and Pacific Ocean influences on Southeast Australian drought and soil moisture. Journal of Climate. | External link to abstract
Vaze J, Post DA, Chiew FHS, Perraud JM, Viney NR and Teng J (2010) Climate non-stationarity: validity of calibrated rainfall-runoff models for use in climate change studies. Journal of Hydrology, 394, 447-457. | External link to abstract
Vaze J, Teng J, Chiew FHS (2010) Assessment of GCM simulations of annual and seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall distirbution across south-east Australia. Hydrological processes | External link to abstract
Watterson IG (2010) Relationships between southeastern Australian rainfall and sea surface temperatures examined using a climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research 115. | External link to abstract
Alory G and Meyers G (2009) Warming of the upper equatorial Indian Ocean and changes in the heat budget (1960-99), Journal of Climate 22(1) 93-113. | External link to abstract [3378 KB]
Cai W, Cowan T, Briggs P and Raupach M (2009) Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia. Geophysical Research Letters 36. | External link to abstract
Cai W, Cowan T and Raupach M (2009) Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires. Geophysical Research Letters 36 | External link to abstract
Cai W, Cowan T and Sullivan A (2009) Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 36. | External link to abstract
Cai W, Sullivan A and Cowan T (2009) Climate change contributes to more frequent consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. Geophysical Research Letters 36. | External link to abstract
Donohue RJ, McVicar TR and Roderick ML (2009) Climate-related trends in Australian vegetation cover as inferred from satellite observations, 1981-2006. Global Change Biology 15, 1025-1039. | External link to abstract
Hendon HH, Lim E, Wang G, Alves O and Hudson D (2009) Prospects for predicting two flavors of El Nino, Geophysical Research Letters. | External link to abstract
Hope P Timbal B, and Fawcett R (2009) Associations between rainfall variability in the southwest and southeast of Australia and their evolution through time, International Journal of Climatology . | External link to abstract
King EA, Paget MJ, Briggs PR, Trudinger CM and Raupach MR (2009) Operational delivery of hydro-meteorological monitoring and modeling over the Australian continent. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing (JSTARS) 2 | External link to abstract
Lim EP, Hendon HH, Alves O, Yin Y, Zhao M, Wang G, Hudson D and Liu G (2009) Impact of SST bias correction on prediction of ENSO and Australian winter rainfall. CAWCR Research Letters 3(4) | Available online
Mpelasoka F and Chiew F (2009) Influence of rainfall scenario construction methods on runoff projections, Journal of Hydrometeorology 10:5 1168-1183| External link to abstract
Potter NJ and Chiew FHS (2009) Statistical characterisation and attribution of recent rainfall and runoff in the Murray-Darling Basin in 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia 13-17 July 2009 | External link to PDF [437 KB]
Raupach MR, Briggs PR, Haverd V, King EA, Paget M and Trudinger CM (2009) Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research component: final report for Phase 3. CAWCR Technical Report No. 013, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO), Melbourne, Australia, 67 pp.
Smith I and Chandler E (2009) Refining rainfall projections for the Murray Darling Basin of south-east Australia-the effect of sampling model results based on performance. Climatic Change. | External link to abstract
Thatcher M and McGregor JL (2009) Using a scale-selective filter for dynamical downscaling with the conformal cubic atmospheric model, Monthly Weather Review, 137, 1742-1752. | External link to PDF [1.31 MB]
Timbal B, (2009) The continuing decline in South-East Australian rainfall - Update to May 2009, CAWCR Res. Let., 2, 4-11. | External link to publication
Timbal B, Fernandez E and Li Z (2009) Generalization of a statistical downscaling model to provide downscaled climate change projections for Australia. Environmental Modelling and Software 24:3, 341-358. | External link to abstract
Timbal B, Li Z and Fernandez E (2009) The Bureau of meteorology Statistical Downscaling Model Graphical User Interface: user manual and software documentation, CAWCR research report, 4. | External link to PDF [2.64 MB]
Wang QJ, Roberston DE and Chiew FHS (2009) A Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites, Water Resources Research, 45. | External link to abstract
Watterson I (2009) Components of precipitation and temperature anomalies and change associated with modes of the Southern Hemisphere. International Journal of Climatology 29, 809-826. | External link to abstract
McGregor JL, Nguyen KC and Thatcher M (2008) Regional climate simulation at 20 km using CCAM with a scale-selective digital filter, Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling Report No. 38 (ed. J. Cote), WMO/TD.
Murphy BF and Timbal B (2008) A review of recent climate variability and climate change in southeastern Australia, International Journal of Climatology, 28(7), 859-879 | External link to abstract
Nguyen KC and McGregor JL (2008) Simulation of rainfall and pan evaporation over Australia In High resolution modelling - the second CAWCR modelling workshop. CAWCR Tech. Rep. 6, 37-40. | External link to PDF [12.01 MB]
Rakich CS, Holbrook NJ and Timbal B (2008) A pressure gradient metric capturing planetary-scale influences on eastern Australian rainfall, Geophysical Research Letters, 35 | External link to abstract
Timbal B and Hope P (2008) Observed early winter Mean Seal Level Pressure changes above southern Australia: a comparison of existing datasets, CAWCR res. Let., 1, 1-7 | External Link to PDF [8.41 MB]
Timbal B and Jones DA (2008) Future projections of winter rainfall in southeast Australia using a statistical downscaling technique. Climatic Change, 86(1), 165-187 | External link to abstract
Watterson IG (2008) Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming. Journal Geophysical Research, 113. | External link to abstract
Watterson IG, McGregor JL and Nguyen KC (2008) Changes in extreme temperatures of Australasian summer simulated by CCAM under global warming, and the roles of winds and land-sea contrasts, Australian Meteorological Magazine, 57, 195-212. | External link to abstract
Alory G, Wijffels S and Meyers G (2007) Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960–1999 and associated mechanisms, Geophysical Research Letters, 34 | External link to abstract
Hendon HH, Thompson DWJ and Wheeler MC (2007) Australian Rainfall and Surface Temperature Variations Associated with the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode. Journal of Climate, 20(11): 2452-2467. | External link to abstract
Meyers G, McIntosh P, Pigot, L and Pook M (2007) The years of El Niño, La Niña, and Interactions with the Tropical Indian Ocean. Journal of Climate, 2 (13): | External link to abstract
Timbal B and Murphy B (2007) Observed climate change in the South-East of Australia and its relation to large-scale modes of variability. BMRC Research Letter No. 6: 6-11. | External link to website
Wang G and Hendon HH (2007) Sensitivity of Australian Rainfall to Inter-El Niño Variations. Journal of Climate, 20(16): 4211-4226. | External link to abstract
McGregor JL (2006) Regional climate modelling using CCAM. In The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) - challenges and opportunities - BMRC Research Report 123, 118-122. External link to PDF [15.74 MB]