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Future hydroclimate projections

One of the key outputs from Phase 2 of SEACI is an updated set of projected changes to rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and runoff across south-eastern Australia under 1 °C and 2 °C of global warming. The research:

  • calibrated and regionalised a rainfall-runoff model (SIMHYD) to simulate daily runoff for 65,338 0.05° grid cells (about 5km x 5km) from 1895-2008 across south-eastern Australia. For this, daily rainfall and potential evaporation data was calibrated against daily streamflow from 240 catchments across the study region.
  • developed future daily climate series (scenarios) to drive the rainfall-runoff model, informed by 15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) global climate models (GCMs), and
  • modelled future daily runoff using the regionalised rainfall-runoff model, driven with the future daily climate series.

 

The Method

The method is described in detail and the results are presented in the Projected changes in climate and runoff (PDF, 3.37 MB) report. The various components in the modelling are further assessed in Estimating climate change impact on runoff across south-east Australia [external link].  These projections represent an update of the SEACI Phase 1 projections as described in the Phase 1 Future runoff projections (PDF, 2.69 MB) report.

 

Data

The variables are summarised as values for every one of the 65,338 0.05° grid cells across south-eastern Australia in three files containing:

Rainfall.csv

  • location of the grid cell (latitude, longitude and SILO ID #)
  • catchment in which the grid cell is located (as defined in the Projected changes in climate and runoff (PDF, 3.37 MB) report. The suffix (M) indicates that the catchment is in the Murray-Darling Basin, (S) indicates that it is elsewhere in the SEACI region, and (P) indicates that it is elsewhere in south-eastern Australia.
  • mean annual rainfall (averaged over 1895–2009)
  • number of GCMs projecting an increase/decrease in mean annual rainfall
  • percentage change in mean annual rainfall for 1 °C and 2 °C of global warming

PET.csv

  • location of the grid cell (latitude, longitude and SILO ID #)
  • catchment in which the grid cell is located (as defined in the Projected changes in climate and runoff (PDF, 3.37 MB) report. The suffix (M) indicates that the catchment is in the Murray-Darling Basin, (S) indicates that it is elsewhere in the SEACI region, and (P) indicates that it is elsewhere in south-eastern Australia.
  • mean annual potential evapotranspiration (averaged over 1895–2009)
  • number of GCMs projecting an increase/decrease in mean annual evapotranspiration
  • percentage change in mean annual evapotranspiration for 1 °C and 2 °C of global warming

Runoff.csv

  • location of the grid cell (latitude, longitude and SILO ID #)
  • catchment in which the grid cell is located (as defined in the Projected changes in climate and runoff (PDF, 3.37 MB) report. The suffix (M) indicates that the catchment is in the Murray-Darling Basin, (S) indicates that it is elsewhere in the SEACI region, and (P) indicates that it is elsewhere in south-eastern Australia.
  • mean annual runoff (averaged over 1895–2009)
  • number of GCMs projecting an increase/decrease in mean annual runoff
  • percentage change in mean annual runoff for 1 °C and 2 °C of global warming

 

After completion of the registration form, an e-mail will be sent to you, allowing download of the data from the SEACI website.

Go to the registration form.

 

References

Post DA, Chiew FHS, Teng J, Wang B and Marvanek S (2012) Projected changes in climate and runoff for south-eastern Australia under 1 °C and 2 °C of global warming. A SEACI Phase 2 special report, CSIRO, Australia, 40 pp. | (PDF, 3.37 MB)

Post DA, Chiew F, Vaze J, Teng J and Perraud JM (2009) Future runoff projections (~2030) for southeast Australia. | (PDF, 2.69 MB)

Chiew FHS, Teng J, Vaze J, Post DA, Perraud J-M, Kirono DGC and Viney NR (2009) Estimating climate change impact on runoff across south-east Australia: method, results and implications of modelling method. Water Resources Research, 45. | Link to abstract [external link].

Smith and Chiew (2009) Document and assess methods for generating inputs to hydrological models and extend delivery of projections across Victoria. Final project report 2.2.5B| (PDF, 532 KB)